* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KAREN AL122007 09/26/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 67 69 71 73 70 67 68 66 65 64 V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 67 69 71 73 70 67 68 66 65 64 V (KT) LGE mod 55 63 68 72 73 74 71 69 66 64 64 66 69 SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 17 19 19 18 20 21 19 15 11 16 17 SHEAR DIR 277 263 257 262 262 230 245 230 228 222 220 201 210 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 136 136 134 132 132 132 135 137 142 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 137 134 133 128 124 122 121 122 124 129 130 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -55.1 -55.0 -55.4 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 53 52 54 53 52 55 55 51 50 52 54 55 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 14 13 13 16 13 12 14 14 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 38 28 24 13 -2 -32 -44 -48 -27 -31 -6 -3 12 200 MB DIV -5 -5 2 6 19 8 17 -1 10 14 26 26 17 LAND (KM) 1291 1241 1204 1186 1169 1205 1282 1351 1346 1359 1367 1284 1219 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.2 12.6 13.2 13.8 15.1 16.4 17.6 18.7 19.7 20.7 21.9 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 42.4 43.5 44.6 45.7 46.7 48.4 49.6 50.6 51.5 52.3 52.9 54.0 55.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 9 8 8 6 6 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 21 20 26 30 29 39 47 42 39 41 49 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. 0. -1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 15. 18. 19. 16. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 15. 12. 13. 11. 10. 9. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL122007 KAREN 09/26/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122007 KAREN 09/26/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY