* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * THIRTEEN AL132007 09/26/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 44 50 57 62 67 71 72 72 73 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 44 50 47 35 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 40 47 46 35 29 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 4 2 3 5 4 7 4 3 3 6 7 SHEAR DIR 332 359 37 43 73 202 235 220 244 277 29 343 360 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 149 150 150 150 152 154 154 154 153 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 131 131 133 134 133 135 136 135 134 133 131 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 13 11 9 13 9 12 9 12 9 13 10 700-500 MB RH 64 63 64 64 63 61 65 67 67 66 65 62 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 7 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -20 -18 -20 -21 -15 -13 -22 -30 -39 -36 -22 -20 200 MB DIV -15 -4 -4 -2 0 27 22 13 11 25 -6 -1 -26 LAND (KM) 199 204 209 185 162 46 -13 -82 -155 -214 -203 -191 -199 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 20.9 20.7 20.6 20.5 20.2 20.1 20.0 20.0 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 94.9 94.7 94.9 95.1 96.2 96.8 97.5 98.3 98.9 98.9 98.9 99.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 2 4 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 58 53 48 47 47 57 60 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 19. 26. 32. 38. 43. 45. 45. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 20. 27. 32. 37. 41. 42. 42. 43. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL132007 THIRTEEN 09/26/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132007 THIRTEEN 09/26/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY