* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL972007 09/26/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 34 40 48 52 56 60 63 66
V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 34 40 48 52 56 60 63 66
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 22 23 26 30 35 38 42 45
SHEAR (KTS) 33 33 32 28 23 11 10 8 17 24 25 19 7
SHEAR DIR 299 287 281 281 279 277 311 254 279 256 254 234 245
SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 154 154 157 157 158 157 159 160 161 159
ADJ. POT. INT. 147 142 143 144 144 144 141 138 136 137 138 140 139
200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -55.3 -55.2 -55.7
TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 9 9 7
700-500 MB RH 62 60 64 62 63 61 60 58 61 62 64 61 60
GFS VTEX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -43 -47 -45 -60 -71 -48 -47 -29 -18 9 25 40 54
200 MB DIV 5 17 18 12 35 5 21 9 18 18 29 3 12
LAND (KM) 55 106 61 44 78 200 246 306 328 323 307 185 26
LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.7 22.8 23.7 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.4 26.2
LONG(DEG W) 66.8 67.8 68.8 69.9 70.9 72.8 74.2 75.0 75.7 76.5 77.3 78.4 79.9
STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 11 11 10 7 5 4 4 5 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 78 79 78 79 76 80 77 77 78 83 84 56 83
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 27. 31. 34. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 21. 25. 29. 33. 37. 41.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 15. 23. 27. 31. 35. 39. 41.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL972007 INVEST 09/26/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972007 INVEST 09/26/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY