* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KAREN AL122007 09/26/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 71 73 73 72 68 65 63 64 62 63 V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 71 73 73 72 68 65 63 64 62 63 V (KT) LGE mod 60 66 70 72 73 73 70 67 64 64 65 68 71 SHEAR (KTS) 13 16 16 19 13 21 17 24 15 15 6 15 8 SHEAR DIR 257 241 254 265 228 246 229 231 230 236 215 237 242 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 136 135 135 132 132 133 134 137 141 142 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 135 133 131 126 123 121 121 124 127 125 125 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.9 -54.6 -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 51 52 53 50 49 50 52 51 53 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 13 13 14 12 11 10 11 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 25 20 5 -14 -32 -49 -51 -47 -46 -34 -27 -24 -17 200 MB DIV -2 8 8 16 29 16 16 -5 19 -2 24 -2 12 LAND (KM) 1267 1228 1196 1199 1218 1277 1357 1340 1358 1353 1233 1198 1224 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.7 13.2 14.0 14.8 16.1 17.4 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.5 22.5 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 43.1 44.3 45.5 46.5 47.5 49.0 50.4 51.4 52.1 53.0 54.4 55.1 55.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 11 9 8 7 6 7 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 25 30 28 34 46 44 38 41 55 56 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -7. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 9. 7. 6. 6. 5. 6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 8. 5. 3. 4. 2. 3. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL122007 KAREN 09/26/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122007 KAREN 09/26/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY