* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * THIRTEEN AL132007 09/26/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 44 50 56 61 65 68 69 67 67 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 44 50 56 61 43 34 30 31 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 46 53 60 44 34 30 32 36 SHEAR (KTS) 12 5 6 6 5 6 1 5 4 4 9 14 10 SHEAR DIR 356 24 11 27 71 223 277 270 344 341 320 342 5 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 151 151 150 150 151 151 150 151 151 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 132 133 133 132 133 132 132 130 131 130 131 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 14 11 10 12 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 63 62 64 66 70 68 67 56 52 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -17 -20 -19 -18 -8 -13 -21 -37 -18 -38 0 -10 200 MB DIV 15 19 4 -2 13 27 32 29 12 9 -9 -22 -43 LAND (KM) 273 260 247 219 191 135 51 6 -29 -60 -24 6 8 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.1 20.9 20.8 20.7 20.5 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.4 20.7 21.1 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.4 94.4 94.7 94.9 95.4 96.2 96.7 97.1 97.5 97.3 97.2 97.3 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 55 54 52 52 53 55 66 66 9999 9999 9999 72 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 26. 31. 36. 40. 41. 40. 39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 14. 20. 26. 31. 35. 38. 39. 37. 37. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL132007 THIRTEEN 09/26/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132007 THIRTEEN 09/26/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY