* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL982007 09/26/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 53 56 56 54 52 50 47 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 33 40 43 43 41 39 37 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 25 26 26 31 36 40 40 39 37 36 37 SHEAR (KTS) 18 15 15 10 7 13 23 38 39 39 27 22 22 SHEAR DIR 297 293 324 337 351 230 195 203 205 230 247 269 233 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 163 160 157 150 147 140 131 130 137 142 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 140 139 136 134 131 128 119 108 106 114 121 117 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.9 -55.9 -57.1 -57.2 -57.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 5 5 3 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 58 58 52 48 47 47 44 37 37 36 35 34 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 8 -5 -5 -2 7 3 -36 -32 -47 -37 -60 -23 200 MB DIV 33 31 -18 -4 11 -12 11 15 13 -24 -36 13 41 LAND (KM) 17 -11 -40 -88 -62 78 310 368 390 434 412 301 124 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.0 26.4 26.9 27.3 28.5 30.0 31.2 31.8 31.5 31.2 31.2 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 81.5 81.5 81.5 81.2 80.9 79.8 77.9 75.9 74.3 74.0 75.1 77.1 79.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 5 5 6 10 11 9 4 2 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 54 60 9999 9999 9999 50 39 30 23 24 29 39 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 22. 29. 31. 32. 30. 28. 26. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 28. 31. 31. 29. 27. 25. 22. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL982007 INVEST 09/26/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982007 INVEST 09/26/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY