* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KAREN AL122007 09/27/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 69 69 67 62 60 57 54 54 54 53 V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 69 69 67 62 60 57 54 54 54 53 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 71 71 71 68 65 60 57 54 53 54 56 SHEAR (KTS) 17 19 19 19 22 24 30 25 23 23 17 17 17 SHEAR DIR 259 266 268 248 239 245 234 241 247 263 244 256 235 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 135 134 133 133 134 137 140 144 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 134 131 128 126 123 123 125 128 130 129 126 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -55.5 -55.5 -55.5 -55.7 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 10 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 52 54 53 50 50 48 49 52 59 58 53 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 14 15 15 15 12 13 11 11 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 22 11 -8 -26 -34 -49 -53 -28 -41 -15 -24 -21 -15 200 MB DIV 11 12 16 29 16 14 11 13 4 -1 20 10 -20 LAND (KM) 1221 1203 1187 1206 1236 1287 1295 1274 1259 1170 1061 1010 1001 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.4 14.0 14.8 15.5 16.6 17.7 18.7 19.6 20.6 21.7 22.7 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 44.6 45.7 46.7 47.7 48.6 50.0 51.3 52.4 53.6 54.8 56.2 57.2 57.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 26 29 28 32 44 50 47 51 54 54 65 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -4. -6. -8. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -18. -16. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -2. -6. -10. -9. -10. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -11. -11. -12. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL122007 KAREN 09/27/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122007 KAREN 09/27/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY