* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* THIRTEEN AL132007 09/27/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 49 55 62 67 71 73 72 70
V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 49 55 38 31 28 27 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 42 48 36 30 28 27 27 27
SHEAR (KTS) 3 5 5 4 6 3 5 1 2 5 9 15 19
SHEAR DIR 347 13 31 95 192 254 231 216 281 58 11 346 7
SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 151 151 151 152 152 152 154 154 154 153 154
ADJ. POT. INT. 131 133 132 131 133 134 135 134 136 135 134 133 134
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 12 13 9 12 9 13 10 13 10 13
700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 61 63 68 70 69 65 64 59 55 49
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -11 -14 -19 -14 -10 -6 -17 -30 -35 -42 -29 -18 0
200 MB DIV 8 12 5 19 29 36 57 12 45 -4 -14 -37 -29
LAND (KM) 242 221 199 180 160 86 6 -62 -134 -194 -197 -188 -211
LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.2 21.0 20.9 20.8 20.6 20.3 20.2 20.2 20.1 20.2 20.5 20.4
LONG(DEG W) 94.7 94.9 95.0 95.2 95.3 96.0 96.7 97.4 98.2 98.8 98.9 99.0 99.2
STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1
HEAT CONTENT 61 61 60 61 61 70 66 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 16.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 25. 31. 37. 42. 44. 43. 43.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 25. 32. 37. 41. 43. 42. 40.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL132007 THIRTEEN 09/27/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132007 THIRTEEN 09/27/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY