* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KAREN AL122007 09/27/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 50 49 47 46 46 46 47 52 55 60 62 V (KT) LAND 55 52 50 49 47 46 46 46 47 52 55 60 62 V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 50 48 47 46 45 44 44 45 48 53 59 SHEAR (KTS) 22 23 20 20 22 21 26 19 19 11 14 3 13 SHEAR DIR 270 272 263 250 264 253 242 260 263 216 250 257 273 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 136 136 135 136 139 141 142 145 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 133 132 130 127 126 129 129 128 128 130 130 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -55.1 -55.4 -55.4 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 51 51 52 55 56 60 59 54 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 18 17 15 15 14 13 11 12 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 12 -5 -24 -35 -51 -66 -52 -42 -36 -24 -25 -17 -14 200 MB DIV 17 27 33 39 50 27 28 22 12 30 11 21 -7 LAND (KM) 1163 1149 1149 1176 1204 1219 1175 1143 1053 946 896 856 847 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.9 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.9 17.9 18.8 19.8 20.6 21.2 22.0 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 46.1 47.1 48.1 49.1 50.0 51.6 52.9 54.3 55.8 57.0 57.7 58.5 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 10 9 8 8 8 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 28 34 46 51 58 58 54 56 64 60 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -10. -8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -3. 1. 6. 10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -3. 0. 5. 7. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL122007 KAREN 09/27/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122007 KAREN 09/27/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED