* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * THIRTEEN AL132007 09/27/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 47 52 60 68 72 73 72 69 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 37 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 5 4 3 4 6 2 9 3 3 4 13 18 23 SHEAR DIR 352 26 85 212 265 299 264 280 162 276 333 347 342 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 150 150 153 155 156 155 156 157 157 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 131 132 133 138 139 139 137 136 138 136 134 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 12 13 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 67 65 63 63 66 68 70 68 68 62 57 53 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -23 -20 -11 -2 -15 -10 -35 -25 -52 -30 -31 -5 200 MB DIV 10 7 21 35 35 33 50 29 0 -6 -14 -29 -16 LAND (KM) 206 179 153 123 93 3 -102 -181 -220 -272 -232 -175 -173 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 20.7 20.5 20.5 20.4 20.4 20.6 20.8 21.2 21.5 22.0 22.7 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.0 95.2 95.5 95.8 96.8 98.1 99.1 99.8 100.4 100.1 99.6 99.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 4 6 5 4 3 2 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 54 53 53 56 62 68 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 15. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 31. 38. 43. 45. 43. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 17. 22. 30. 38. 42. 43. 42. 39. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL132007 THIRTEEN 09/27/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132007 THIRTEEN 09/27/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED