* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * THIRTEEN AL132007 09/27/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 47 55 63 68 71 73 73 74 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 5 3 5 5 5 5 5 7 6 12 17 N/A SHEAR DIR 30 77 175 249 281 230 206 151 172 350 13 5 N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 153 156 157 158 156 157 157 157 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 132 133 137 143 143 140 136 135 135 135 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 13 14 11 10 13 9 13 10 14 10 15 N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 63 65 67 68 68 75 70 65 62 62 55 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -21 -14 -6 -9 -20 -17 -38 -50 -55 -34 -26 N/A 200 MB DIV -3 11 34 30 20 41 26 26 0 -15 -35 -6 N/A LAND (KM) 149 121 93 57 21 -105 -225 -346 -359 -375 -343 -337 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.5 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.9 21.0 21.2 21.5 21.4 21.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.6 95.8 96.2 96.6 98.0 99.7 101.1 101.5 101.6 101.9 102.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 5 8 7 4 2 1 1 1 N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 58 62 67 68 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 15. 16. 17. 16. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 25. 33. 38. 43. 45. 44. 46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 25. 33. 38. 41. 43. 43. 44. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL132007 THIRTEEN 09/27/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132007 THIRTEEN 09/27/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY