* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP992007 09/27/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 34 46 57 64 67 68 66 61 55 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 34 46 57 64 67 68 66 61 55 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 31 36 40 42 42 40 36 SHEAR (KTS) 8 6 5 4 2 3 10 8 16 11 14 16 20 SHEAR DIR 56 55 18 66 28 278 316 263 284 261 235 227 218 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.7 26.2 24.5 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 158 158 156 154 152 150 142 126 108 94 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 10 10 11 10 9 7 5 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 69 69 66 70 71 67 67 63 61 53 50 48 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -26 -29 -14 -8 -16 -20 -17 -13 -19 -17 -31 -24 200 MB DIV 24 15 26 38 21 15 39 55 50 35 27 28 22 LAND (KM) 385 397 392 404 427 477 530 616 563 611 640 718 745 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.5 16.3 17.4 18.5 19.7 20.9 22.1 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 102.4 103.1 103.8 104.6 105.4 107.0 108.8 110.8 112.7 114.8 116.9 118.7 120.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 11 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 18. 25. 31. 35. 36. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 22. 33. 41. 46. 46. 44. 39. 33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 14. 26. 37. 44. 47. 48. 46. 41. 35. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP992007 INVEST 09/27/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992007 INVEST 09/27/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED