* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KAREN AL122007 09/27/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 45 45 45 44 44 48 50 56 59 62 V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 45 45 45 44 44 48 50 56 59 62 V (KT) LGE mod 50 48 47 45 44 42 40 39 39 40 43 49 56 SHEAR (KTS) 21 29 26 27 24 24 25 23 15 15 2 5 17 SHEAR DIR 258 255 261 266 253 246 255 256 242 237 85 285 7 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 135 135 136 138 139 140 142 145 147 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 130 129 127 126 127 125 125 128 129 130 129 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -54.6 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -54.9 -55.0 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 52 49 53 52 49 56 52 60 59 57 55 51 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 17 14 14 15 14 13 12 14 14 17 15 20 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -32 -40 -55 -64 -45 -53 -36 -29 -24 -17 -10 8 200 MB DIV 50 40 52 28 28 25 19 23 30 17 5 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 1139 1157 1177 1210 1217 1162 1140 1110 1033 966 935 906 911 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.6 18.6 19.4 19.9 20.6 21.7 22.6 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 47.9 48.9 49.9 50.7 51.5 52.8 54.1 55.2 56.0 56.8 57.5 58.3 59.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 9 8 7 5 5 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 32 40 49 51 54 61 54 54 54 65 61 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. -14. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. -2. 0. -1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -1. 0. 7. 10. 15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -2. 0. 6. 9. 12. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL122007 KAREN 09/27/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122007 KAREN 09/27/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY