* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* LORENZO AL132007 09/27/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 63 68 72 79 85 90 92 91 87 82 79
V (KT) LAND 50 57 63 52 44 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 50 59 66 58 48 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 3 2 3 4 5 10 3 6 5 9 15 18 N/A
SHEAR DIR 346 349 260 255 250 269 265 161 234 332 351 336 N/A
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 152 152 155 157 157 158 157 158 161 N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 134 135 133 134 136 141 143 139 137 134 136 139 N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 12 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 11 N/A
700-500 MB RH 63 65 67 68 68 73 74 72 65 65 57 54 N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -16 -8 3 0 -18 -19 -37 -26 -69 -41 -47 -9 N/A
200 MB DIV 9 49 52 28 25 51 39 6 -7 -32 -8 -16 N/A
LAND (KM) 108 58 9 -14 -38 -129 -240 -363 -372 -380 -371 -383 N/A
LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.4 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.6 21.2 21.5 21.9 22.3 22.3 23.0 N/A
LONG(DEG W) 95.7 96.2 96.6 96.9 97.2 98.4 100.0 101.3 101.7 101.6 101.8 101.6 N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 7 7 4 2 1 2 3 N/A
HEAT CONTENT 61 66 65 65 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. 13. 13.
PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 2. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 19. 24. 30. 37. 42. 43. 42. 38. 33. 31.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 13. 18. 22. 29. 35. 40. 42. 41. 37. 32. 29.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL132007 LORENZO 09/27/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132007 LORENZO 09/27/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY