* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KAREN AL122007 09/28/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 44 43 41 40 41 43 47 52 57 61 V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 44 43 41 40 41 43 47 52 57 61 V (KT) LGE mod 50 48 46 44 43 41 40 39 38 40 44 50 58 SHEAR (KTS) 30 27 25 20 24 27 22 21 17 9 9 10 6 SHEAR DIR 260 266 263 248 248 270 250 266 234 277 200 310 354 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 135 135 136 137 139 140 140 144 145 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 131 130 128 127 126 127 126 125 128 128 128 127 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.4 -55.3 -54.9 -55.2 -55.5 -55.4 -55.5 -55.4 -55.6 -55.5 -55.7 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 53 53 50 52 54 58 60 58 56 55 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 14 15 13 13 13 12 12 12 13 13 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -36 -44 -47 -47 -44 -47 -32 -27 -17 -13 -4 -2 200 MB DIV 32 47 44 53 48 1 35 20 28 14 15 6 6 LAND (KM) 1128 1151 1186 1201 1170 1136 1126 1094 1070 1051 1034 986 924 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.1 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.7 21.7 22.8 23.5 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 49.0 49.9 50.8 51.6 52.3 53.5 54.7 55.4 55.8 56.3 57.0 58.0 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 5 5 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 40 50 51 51 60 57 54 53 54 65 52 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -17. -17. -16. -14. -11. -9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -2. 3. 8. 13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -9. -7. -3. 2. 7. 11. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL122007 KAREN 09/28/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122007 KAREN 09/28/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY