* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * LORENZO AL132007 09/28/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 76 79 82 85 88 88 85 80 75 71 69 V (KT) LAND 65 71 63 51 42 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 65 73 68 55 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 8 7 10 15 10 10 15 19 23 32 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 291 264 242 248 283 256 297 322 358 325 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 153 155 156 155 157 157 157 158 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 136 136 139 139 136 136 135 135 136 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 12 13 9 13 10 14 9 14 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 68 65 68 71 70 67 59 58 52 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -8 -12 -26 -19 -17 -37 -61 -47 -32 -7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 39 26 26 23 37 38 -16 -17 -34 18 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 62 26 -9 -48 -88 -126 -205 -195 -194 -204 -172 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.6 20.7 21.4 21.8 22.5 23.1 23.5 24.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.2 96.6 97.0 97.5 98.0 98.9 99.8 99.8 99.7 99.8 99.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 2 3 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 68 69 70 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 17. 21. 24. 23. 21. 15. 10. 6. 4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 14. 17. 20. 23. 23. 20. 15. 10. 6. 4. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL132007 LORENZO 09/28/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132007 LORENZO 09/28/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY