* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP992007 09/28/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 35 45 54 58 57 52 44 36 30 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 35 45 54 58 57 52 44 36 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 33 35 33 30 25 20 SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 7 5 5 5 14 21 19 27 30 30 30 SHEAR DIR 47 71 239 251 261 339 206 235 219 236 237 252 243 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.0 24.9 23.4 22.6 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 156 155 153 152 148 135 112 95 85 81 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 70 69 72 69 72 70 63 60 51 46 40 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -18 -13 -1 0 -5 22 31 22 9 2 8 13 200 MB DIV 41 51 65 64 59 60 93 83 47 27 -4 -9 -18 LAND (KM) 451 483 522 561 596 662 668 589 552 536 497 490 440 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.6 17.1 18.8 20.8 22.8 24.3 25.1 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.3 105.1 105.9 106.9 107.8 109.8 111.7 113.6 115.5 117.1 118.1 118.9 118.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 11 7 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 30. 31. 30. 28. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. -4. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 30. 36. 36. 31. 22. 14. 7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 15. 25. 34. 38. 37. 32. 24. 16. 10. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP992007 INVEST 09/28/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992007 INVEST 09/28/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY