* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KAREN AL122007 09/28/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 40 40 39 43 47 54 58 61 61 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 40 40 39 43 47 54 58 61 61 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 42 42 41 39 38 37 38 41 48 56 63 SHEAR (KTS) 25 20 18 25 29 26 20 14 11 2 3 10 16 SHEAR DIR 266 276 262 258 266 275 283 300 284 51 292 32 10 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 137 136 137 138 138 139 140 142 145 146 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 134 131 130 130 128 126 125 125 127 129 129 128 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.2 -54.8 -55.2 -55.4 -55.1 -55.2 -55.2 -55.6 -55.2 -55.5 -55.2 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 55 55 51 52 56 54 58 60 60 60 56 58 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 14 11 12 9 10 11 13 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -41 -37 -43 -43 -49 -36 -28 -21 -18 -18 -12 -12 200 MB DIV 44 48 59 61 29 30 20 32 18 32 10 -9 -8 LAND (KM) 1049 1070 1102 1132 1094 1075 1113 1122 1080 1015 949 875 813 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.3 17.4 18.6 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.8 22.2 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 49.4 50.3 51.1 51.9 52.6 53.7 54.5 55.1 55.6 56.4 57.4 58.4 59.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 38 41 52 54 51 57 58 54 53 52 65 61 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -13. -12. -10. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 3. 10. 14. 17. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -2. 2. 9. 13. 16. 16. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL122007 KAREN 09/28/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122007 KAREN 09/28/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED