* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * LORENZO AL132007 09/28/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 75 77 81 83 82 79 74 73 71 70 V (KT) LAND 65 52 41 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 65 51 41 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 9 15 12 11 11 15 23 25 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 261 253 239 260 273 298 335 354 8 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 155 155 156 157 157 157 157 159 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 139 139 140 137 137 135 135 137 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 13 11 12 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 69 67 66 69 70 69 61 57 52 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -8 -13 -3 0 -30 -27 -76 -57 -45 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 43 41 51 39 35 1 -11 -24 -13 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -18 -65 -111 -146 -173 -251 -240 -226 -242 -234 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.5 22.1 22.7 23.0 23.7 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.1 97.7 98.2 98.8 99.3 100.2 100.2 100.1 100.2 100.1 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 5 3 3 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 70 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 16. 14. 10. 8. 6. 5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 12. 16. 18. 17. 14. 9. 8. 6. 5. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL132007 LORENZO 09/28/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132007 LORENZO 09/28/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED