* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* KAREN AL122007 09/28/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 28 26 24 22 18 19 20 21 25 29 30
V (KT) LAND 35 32 28 26 24 22 18 19 20 21 25 29 30
V (KT) LGE mod 35 30 27 25 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 24 27 34 37 39 35 35 26 24 25 22 19 23
SHEAR DIR 251 259 251 259 264 253 271 260 283 279 319 335 4
SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 135 135 135 137 138 139 140 143 145 147 149
ADJ. POT. INT. 126 130 128 128 127 128 126 124 124 126 127 131 133
200 MB T (C) -55.2 -54.8 -55.2 -55.4 -55.4 -55.2 -55.6 -55.5 -55.9 -55.6 -55.8 -55.7 -55.8
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
700-500 MB RH 54 54 52 53 52 55 58 57 53 53 52 49 48
GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 11 10 11 10 8 8 7 6 6 5 4
850 MB ENV VOR -39 -35 -34 -36 -38 -37 -39 -37 -37 -37 -36 -41 -39
200 MB DIV 42 47 52 48 25 21 15 7 5 -23 3 -38 -31
LAND (KM) 1128 1143 1164 1211 1193 1167 1187 1142 1121 1098 1037 938 801
LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.3 16.9 18.1 19.3 20.2 21.1 21.9 22.5 22.7 22.7
LONG(DEG W) 49.0 49.8 50.5 51.2 51.9 53.2 54.3 55.0 55.4 55.9 56.8 58.0 59.6
STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 5 5 6 7
HEAT CONTENT 33 39 43 53 52 60 55 54 54 52 63 63 52
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -18. -23. -27. -29. -30. -28. -28.
PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. -6. -3. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -16. -16. -15. -13. -10. -5. -2.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -9. -11. -13. -17. -16. -15. -14. -10. -6. -5.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL122007 KAREN 09/28/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122007 KAREN 09/28/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY