* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP992007 09/28/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 36 42 51 61 71 73 65 51 40 28 17
V (KT) LAND 25 29 36 42 51 61 71 73 65 51 40 28 17
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 39 43 44 41 35 27 21 16
SHEAR (KTS) 6 7 5 4 6 15 17 19 23 31 32 35 36
SHEAR DIR 41 139 133 137 114 152 173 172 197 202 220 227 247
SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.0 26.1 23.9 22.5 22.0 21.6 21.1
POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 153 153 146 126 102 86 79 76 71
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 72 70 72 71 74 71 67 66 58 51 49 43 43
GFS VTEX (KT) 4 6 8 9 11 10 11 12 11 9 8 7 6
850 MB ENV VOR -9 -4 9 29 37 59 75 71 37 35 21 18 19
200 MB DIV 57 70 72 75 102 116 88 65 22 5 0 -7 2
LAND (KM) 591 628 666 702 752 707 667 617 576 498 456 373 236
LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 15.1 15.5 17.1 18.9 21.1 23.4 25.1 26.1 27.1 27.9
LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.9 108.8 109.8 110.8 112.8 114.8 116.8 118.2 119.0 119.2 118.7 117.4
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 13 14 14 11 7 5 6 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 22. 21. 18. 16. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. -1. -5. -10. -15.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 7. 11. 12. 11. 8. 7. 5. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 23. 33. 43. 46. 39. 26. 14. 2. -10.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 11. 17. 26. 36. 46. 48. 40. 26. 15. 3. -8.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP992007 INVEST 09/28/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 48% is 3.7 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 50% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992007 INVEST 09/28/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED