* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* KAREN AL122007 09/28/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 29 28 26 28 30 34 38 42 43 42
V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 29 28 26 28 30 34 38 42 43 42
V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 29 27 24 22 21 23 25 29 33 37
SHEAR (KTS) 28 43 42 35 31 30 13 16 3 9 6 13 19
SHEAR DIR 248 245 260 265 264 275 277 261 288 308 18 22 45
SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 133 135 137 139 140 141 145 146 146 148
ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 125 125 125 126 126 125 125 128 128 128 129
200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.1 -55.4 -55.5 -55.1 -55.6 -55.4 -55.6 -55.2 -55.5 -55.5 -55.6 -55.6
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
700-500 MB RH 56 53 51 54 55 59 61 58 59 57 59 53 54
GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 6 5
850 MB ENV VOR -28 -30 -33 -32 -41 -37 -32 -38 -33 -46 -50 -45 -34
200 MB DIV 44 55 47 29 63 26 16 -1 0 -15 8 -21 -8
LAND (KM) 1254 1275 1298 1268 1246 1216 1158 1078 1037 986 944 870 774
LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.1 19.0 19.9 20.6 21.3 22.0 22.8 23.0 22.9
LONG(DEG W) 49.3 50.1 50.8 51.5 52.2 53.5 54.8 55.7 56.3 57.1 58.0 59.0 60.1
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 5 5 5 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 36 43 53 48 50 58 51 52 52 63 63 55 46
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.8 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -16. -15. -15. -13. -12. -12.
PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -5. -3. 0. 4. 8. 9. 10.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -7. -5. -1. 3. 7. 8. 7.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL122007 KAREN 09/28/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
Scaled RI index= 2.2 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122007 KAREN 09/28/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY