* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * LORENZO AL132007 09/28/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 15 24 36 49 58 V (KT) LAND 0 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 12 11 10 12 19 24 23 25 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 256 275 277 285 288 342 8 31 13 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 159 161 161 161 161 161 162 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 142 144 145 141 141 140 140 142 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 11 9 12 11 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 69 70 71 72 67 59 51 44 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -11 -1 -11 -30 -36 -57 -45 -40 -7 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 52 43 48 41 3 6 -25 -28 -26 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -150 -206 -267 -327 -376 -263 -309 -406 -387 -305 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 20.9 21.0 21.3 21.6 22.0 22.5 23.2 23.7 24.7 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.7 99.5 100.2 100.9 101.6 102.8 102.5 101.8 101.6 100.8 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 3 4 4 4 6 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 24. 30. 34. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -13. -23. -31. -37. -42. -41. -39. -37. -31. -22. -10. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -11. -18. -23. -26. -23. -15. -9. -5. 4. 16. 30. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -11. -18. -23. -26. -23. -15. -9. -5. 4. 16. 30. 38. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL132007 LORENZO 09/28/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -45.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132007 LORENZO 09/28/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY