* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FOURTEEN AL142007 09/28/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 34 35 37 37 36 34 29 22 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 34 35 37 37 36 34 29 22 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 39 39 38 35 30 24 20 15 SHEAR (KTS) 10 12 14 13 15 19 25 28 37 40 40 51 53 SHEAR DIR 302 303 289 282 269 271 274 267 269 276 265 260 261 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 130 127 124 117 116 116 118 117 117 116 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 122 122 120 117 110 107 107 108 107 106 105 105 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -55.2 -55.8 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 59 57 52 54 57 58 57 53 52 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 0 -1 -4 7 12 4 0 -33 -63 -81 -100 -84 200 MB DIV -8 -12 -21 -21 -10 -22 5 6 15 -14 -5 7 -16 LAND (KM) 994 1045 1097 1171 1245 1422 1570 1719 1846 1919 1988 2015 2025 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.2 16.3 17.1 17.9 18.7 19.9 21.7 23.7 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 26.7 27.2 27.7 28.4 29.1 30.7 32.0 33.3 34.5 35.4 36.2 36.5 36.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 7 8 9 8 7 7 7 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 9 8 6 2 2 3 5 5 3 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -10. -17. -22. -27. -32. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 0. -6. -11. -17. -21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. -1. -8. -13. -19. -24. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL142007 FOURTEEN 09/28/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142007 FOURTEEN 09/28/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY