* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP992007 09/28/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 41 50 55 53 42 29 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 41 50 55 53 42 29 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 32 28 23 17 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 7 8 7 9 15 17 27 32 40 34 36 37 SHEAR DIR 141 113 144 127 142 168 176 192 205 214 224 236 241 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.5 27.1 24.5 22.6 21.9 21.4 20.9 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 153 153 151 137 109 88 78 73 69 63 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 7 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 72 74 73 72 73 65 62 52 46 40 40 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -4 4 20 36 43 62 48 40 26 18 17 -1 8 200 MB DIV 58 55 56 74 90 69 70 43 26 21 -17 -5 10 LAND (KM) 605 628 667 699 726 630 609 564 453 421 378 279 80 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.9 16.5 18.2 20.3 23.0 25.3 26.5 27.3 28.1 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.6 109.5 110.5 111.4 113.4 115.7 117.5 118.6 119.0 118.8 117.9 116.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 14 15 14 9 5 5 7 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 19. 19. 17. 14. 11. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 0. -6. -11. -16. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 29. 28. 17. 3. -9. -19. -29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 16. 25. 30. 28. 17. 4. -8. -18. -28. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP992007 INVEST 09/28/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992007 INVEST 09/28/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY