* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KAREN AL122007 09/29/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 30 29 31 35 39 41 42 42 41 V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 30 29 31 35 39 41 42 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 31 29 25 24 24 26 30 33 36 38 SHEAR (KTS) 36 46 39 34 33 22 11 14 5 18 18 25 19 SHEAR DIR 259 268 271 262 256 275 246 321 330 9 26 28 27 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 137 139 140 142 143 146 149 148 148 149 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 129 129 130 131 131 132 132 132 130 130 131 127 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.6 -55.6 -55.3 -55.8 -55.6 -55.6 -55.8 -55.4 -55.7 -55.5 -55.8 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 55 56 59 56 59 61 61 58 55 52 51 49 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 7 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -32 -33 -35 -32 -28 -40 -36 -44 -47 -55 -58 -57 200 MB DIV 35 20 12 19 46 14 6 10 -7 9 -18 -14 -34 LAND (KM) 1176 1140 1111 1090 1078 1056 939 846 798 766 753 768 812 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 19.1 20.3 21.4 22.4 23.1 23.7 24.5 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 51.5 52.3 53.0 53.7 54.4 55.7 57.0 58.3 59.4 60.4 61.3 62.3 63.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 8 8 8 8 9 7 6 5 5 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 55 51 56 58 61 56 56 62 56 42 38 40 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 771 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -14. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -2. 1. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. 0. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL122007 KAREN 09/29/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122007 KAREN 09/29/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY