* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FOURTEEN AL142007 09/29/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 32 33 31 27 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 32 32 33 31 27 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 33 34 33 30 25 21 16 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 15 13 15 15 19 21 33 37 37 46 52 51 SHEAR DIR 303 285 282 269 255 261 259 261 271 278 260 259 267 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 126 124 122 120 118 116 116 116 116 115 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 119 116 115 114 110 105 104 104 105 104 102 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.4 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 57 55 53 53 53 60 56 59 51 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -2 -4 7 25 14 16 -10 -45 -84 -79 -76 -71 200 MB DIV -12 -21 -21 -9 -11 5 2 4 -9 -9 2 21 -9 LAND (KM) 1045 1107 1171 1240 1310 1505 1729 1839 1855 1892 1975 2019 2024 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.9 17.2 18.2 18.8 19.6 20.5 21.8 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 27.2 27.8 28.4 29.1 29.7 31.5 33.5 34.4 34.6 35.1 36.0 36.5 36.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 10 9 5 4 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 8 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -12. -19. -24. -30. -35. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -3. -9. -14. -19. -24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. -3. -10. -16. -21. -27. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL142007 FOURTEEN 09/29/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142007 FOURTEEN 09/29/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY