* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP992007 09/29/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 51 46 32 18 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 51 46 32 18 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 10 11 12 12 20 28 35 34 33 32 41
SHEAR DIR 70 96 92 118 131 148 164 196 196 209 222 229 233
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.1 26.1 23.6 22.1 21.5 20.8 20.3 25.9
POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 153 151 147 126 99 82 74 68 64 123
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1
700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 73 73 66 63 57 47 37 37 35 38
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 8 6 5 3 3 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 11 24 38 52 56 49 44 24 25 18 15 14 32
200 MB DIV 54 60 82 81 87 84 45 35 16 -1 -6 8 17
LAND (KM) 644 660 689 715 656 599 541 498 407 380 313 152 -16
LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.6 17.3 19.1 21.6 24.1 26.2 27.2 28.2 29.3 30.5
LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.5 110.3 111.2 112.0 114.1 116.3 117.9 118.7 118.8 118.4 117.2 114.9
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 15 15 13 8 5 7 9 12
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 15. 17. 16. 14. 10. 7. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. -2. -8. -13. -18. -23.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 23. 19. 6. -8. -21. -30. -37.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 26. 21. 7. -7. -20. -29. -35.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP992007 INVEST 09/29/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992007 INVEST 09/29/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY