* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KAREN AL122007 09/29/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 31 33 34 39 41 41 42 44 45 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 31 33 34 39 41 41 42 44 45 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 32 31 29 26 25 26 28 31 34 36 39 SHEAR (KTS) 45 37 36 37 34 13 13 7 14 19 19 14 7 SHEAR DIR 267 271 262 262 270 252 264 335 346 12 18 45 331 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 141 142 142 143 146 149 149 149 148 148 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 133 134 133 132 133 135 132 131 129 127 126 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.6 -55.1 -55.6 -55.7 -55.1 -55.3 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 56 56 59 57 56 59 56 55 51 56 56 58 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -43 -38 -39 -45 -31 -36 -35 -47 -45 -64 -49 -37 200 MB DIV 21 5 39 40 11 24 2 1 3 0 0 7 -27 LAND (KM) 1103 1061 1029 1023 1031 920 820 769 760 738 722 743 795 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.3 18.0 18.6 19.9 21.0 22.2 23.3 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 52.5 53.4 54.2 55.0 55.8 57.1 58.4 59.6 60.7 62.0 63.3 64.3 65.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 51 55 59 61 60 59 63 56 40 41 45 49 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 821 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -14. -13. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 0. 5. 7. 7. 9. 10. 13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 4. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL122007 KAREN 09/29/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122007 KAREN 09/29/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED