* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* FOURTEEN AL142007 09/29/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 35 36 34 29 24 19 15 DIS
V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 35 36 34 29 24 19 15 DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 33 34 32 29 24 20 16 DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 11 14 13 15 15 18 27 30 38 36 45 47 47
SHEAR DIR 279 259 242 241 243 251 256 262 273 271 260 255 258
SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.6
POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 128 125 123 119 117 117 117 118 117 118 119
ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 121 118 116 112 108 106 106 108 106 106 106
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -55.5 -55.8 -56.6
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 7
700-500 MB RH 59 56 56 52 53 53 54 55 55 52 51 51 53
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 0 -12 -8 10 7 6 -11 -33 -64 -83 -75 -55 -54
200 MB DIV -22 -23 -6 -5 8 23 7 7 -10 -4 -2 28 -2
LAND (KM) 1057 1124 1193 1283 1374 1559 1686 1794 1880 1965 2074 2182 2270
LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.2 16.0 17.1 18.0 18.6 19.6 21.0 22.2 23.6
LONG(DEG W) 27.3 28.0 28.6 29.5 30.3 32.0 33.1 34.0 34.8 35.8 37.0 38.1 39.0
STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 9 8 7 5 6 8 9 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 8
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -12. -18. -23. -28. -32.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. -1. -6. -11. -15. -17.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. -1. -6. -11. -15. -17.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL142007 FOURTEEN 09/29/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142007 FOURTEEN 09/29/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED