* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FOURTEEN EP142007 09/29/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 48 52 60 59 50 36 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 48 52 60 59 50 36 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 43 43 40 33 25 19 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 12 9 18 16 10 21 26 31 31 24 30 40 SHEAR DIR 70 83 92 130 144 139 175 191 193 208 203 199 208 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 27.6 25.6 23.6 22.5 21.9 21.2 20.4 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 152 151 141 120 98 86 79 72 65 98 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -54.2 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 67 68 63 61 52 39 37 32 33 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 11 9 10 8 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 46 59 69 74 57 50 32 24 18 0 10 39 200 MB DIV 43 59 80 75 75 74 38 33 -2 -16 9 -3 32 LAND (KM) 778 788 770 714 672 657 575 528 454 421 364 213 -47 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.6 16.2 17.0 17.7 19.5 21.8 23.9 25.4 26.5 27.6 28.9 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.3 111.9 112.6 113.3 115.2 116.9 118.1 118.7 119.0 118.7 117.7 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 10 11 13 13 10 7 5 7 10 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 323 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 14. 13. 10. 7. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -3. -8. -12. -15. -21. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 17. 25. 24. 16. 3. -11. -22. -31. -38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 18. 22. 30. 29. 20. 6. -9. -20. -29. -36. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP142007 FOURTEEN 09/29/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 42% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142007 FOURTEEN 09/29/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY