* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * KAREN AL122007 09/29/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 25 26 29 34 40 44 45 48 52 52 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 25 26 29 34 40 44 45 48 52 52 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 22 21 21 24 27 31 34 37 42 SHEAR (KTS) 40 37 39 34 22 9 7 6 16 15 17 10 12 SHEAR DIR 267 257 261 271 276 289 4 340 19 13 7 17 323 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 142 144 144 144 146 149 149 148 150 149 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 134 135 134 132 132 135 134 130 131 130 128 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.2 -55.5 -55.6 -55.6 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 -55.4 -55.1 -55.2 -54.8 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 56 58 56 54 58 59 59 59 59 60 63 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 7 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -40 -38 -47 -40 -31 -32 -36 -37 -40 -47 -36 -23 200 MB DIV 15 40 27 17 24 0 19 -4 1 -15 16 -20 0 LAND (KM) 1028 994 969 990 991 873 783 725 716 706 670 693 769 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.3 18.1 18.8 20.1 20.8 21.9 23.1 23.9 24.1 24.6 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 53.5 54.3 55.0 55.7 56.3 57.6 58.7 59.9 61.1 62.4 63.6 64.6 65.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 9 8 7 8 8 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 53 60 62 60 60 63 62 57 41 41 45 49 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -3. 0. 5. 11. 14. 16. 19. 23. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -5. -4. -1. 4. 10. 14. 15. 18. 22. 22. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL122007 KAREN 09/29/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122007 KAREN 09/29/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY