* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * MELISSA AL142007 09/29/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 39 40 40 37 33 27 25 25 26 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 39 40 40 37 33 27 25 25 26 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 40 42 42 40 37 32 27 24 23 SHEAR (KTS) 18 15 17 13 17 21 28 32 36 37 30 24 19 SHEAR DIR 266 256 247 244 252 251 238 240 248 244 255 263 306 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 124 122 121 121 122 123 122 122 124 127 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 117 117 117 115 115 114 115 113 112 113 116 121 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -55.7 -56.4 -56.8 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 52 50 49 45 44 50 50 48 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 1 19 17 16 17 11 -16 -33 -36 -39 -30 -45 200 MB DIV -17 -12 -7 -2 4 -5 17 -26 -10 -17 7 -25 -9 LAND (KM) 1138 1218 1299 1412 1526 1765 1972 2127 2059 2012 1976 1991 2050 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.5 19.3 20.1 21.1 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 28.1 28.9 29.6 30.7 31.7 33.9 35.8 37.7 39.5 41.2 42.9 44.4 45.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 5 4 4 5 7 9 10 10 14 24 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -15. -21. -24. -25. -24. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -6. -9. -8. -6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -7. -10. -10. -9. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL142007 MELISSA 09/29/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142007 MELISSA 09/29/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY