* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FOURTEEN EP142007 09/29/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 46 50 51 47 44 43 41 40 38 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 46 50 51 47 44 43 41 40 38 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 40 40 39 37 36 35 34 33 SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 17 19 16 21 17 22 12 6 9 12 11 SHEAR DIR 76 79 113 130 123 114 118 111 134 157 165 175 188 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 151 150 147 141 137 135 134 130 127 126 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 72 71 71 72 72 68 60 58 54 53 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 56 73 73 55 31 18 -20 -28 -44 -59 -75 -76 200 MB DIV 74 82 87 70 78 42 -5 5 14 14 -6 -15 -14 LAND (KM) 815 847 827 784 745 659 622 613 615 606 582 577 582 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.5 17.0 18.3 19.3 19.8 19.9 20.1 20.6 20.8 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 111.2 112.0 112.7 113.1 113.4 114.0 114.6 114.9 115.1 115.3 115.7 115.9 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 7 6 5 2 1 2 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 398 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 19. 16. 14. 13. 11. 9. 7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 21. 17. 14. 13. 11. 10. 8. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP142007 FOURTEEN 09/29/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142007 FOURTEEN 09/29/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED