* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* KAREN AL122007 09/29/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 26 28 33 37 38 38 41 43 43
V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 26 26 28 33 37 38 38 41 43 43
V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 22 21 21 23 25 27 29 DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 39 42 40 29 17 13 8 14 18 19 19 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 251 252 266 268 271 283 23 357 360 330 327 N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.5 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 142 142 142 145 148 146 140 134 129 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 131 131 132 132 131 132 132 130 123 116 110 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 -55.4 -55.5 -55.8 -55.8 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 57 54 55 55 59 54 54 52 54 55 59 N/A N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 7 8 7 8 8 8 5 5 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -34 -33 -38 -36 -32 -44 -45 -62 -56 -78 -30 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 58 39 3 12 14 -11 0 -5 2 14 16 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1022 1030 1047 1066 1022 958 944 985 1081 1200 1348 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.3 19.1 19.8 21.3 22.8 24.2 25.8 27.3 28.8 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 54.0 54.6 55.1 55.6 56.1 57.1 58.0 58.6 59.0 59.2 59.0 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 60 59 60 57 57 60 65 42 32 19 12 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 22. 23. 25. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11.
PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 4. 7. 9. 9. 12. 15. 17.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 3. 7. 8. 8. 11. 13. 13.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL122007 KAREN 09/29/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122007 KAREN 09/29/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY