* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * MELISSA AL142007 09/29/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 34 34 32 28 23 18 19 20 22 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 34 34 32 28 23 18 19 20 22 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 35 34 31 28 24 21 19 19 SHEAR (KTS) 16 19 19 22 21 22 29 34 38 35 26 21 15 SHEAR DIR 273 266 269 277 275 257 256 262 249 259 268 294 331 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 119 118 118 120 121 121 120 122 125 134 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 112 112 112 113 113 112 111 110 110 113 121 126 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -55.4 -56.3 -56.8 -56.9 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 53 53 52 49 51 49 48 49 48 51 49 49 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 9 3 -1 5 -13 -23 -31 -50 -47 -50 -52 -69 200 MB DIV -24 -19 -5 7 25 -18 -14 -16 -10 -32 -5 -55 -46 LAND (KM) 1235 1300 1367 1483 1600 1869 2052 2225 2172 2145 2156 2179 2130 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.0 18.1 18.8 19.6 20.3 21.1 21.9 22.9 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 29.0 29.6 30.2 31.3 32.3 34.7 36.5 38.3 40.1 41.6 42.7 44.2 46.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 9 11 12 11 9 9 9 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 2 2 3 6 8 8 10 13 18 23 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -11. -17. -23. -24. -24. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -15. -15. -13. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -16. -15. -13. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL142007 MELISSA 09/29/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142007 MELISSA 09/29/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY