* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* JULIETTE EP142007 09/29/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 46 46 43 38 33 31 29 28 27
V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 46 46 43 38 33 31 29 28 27
V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 42 42 42 40 37 35 33 32 30
SHEAR (KTS) 13 17 17 16 17 23 21 19 12 11 7 12 12
SHEAR DIR 64 96 112 107 106 120 112 125 117 148 130 149 163
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.0
POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 149 148 142 138 134 131 128 124 121 119
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 68 72 66 67 69 64 57 53 47 44 43 40 37
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 10 8 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 54 69 61 56 47 40 -1 -15 -30 -46 -62 -65 -48
200 MB DIV 90 89 40 45 44 6 -11 -7 -4 -25 -11 5 -8
LAND (KM) 778 752 732 704 682 637 619 616 615 644 678 716 747
LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.4 17.9 19.0 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.5
LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.4 112.9 113.4 113.8 114.5 114.9 115.3 115.8 116.4 117.0 117.5 117.9
STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 5 3 3 3 3 3 2 2
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 417 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 8. 4. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 8. 3. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP142007 JULIETTE 09/29/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142007 JULIETTE 09/29/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY