* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * MELISSA AL142007 09/30/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 41 40 37 34 30 28 28 29 29 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 41 40 37 34 30 28 28 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 43 43 42 40 37 33 29 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 19 17 22 20 20 29 31 35 37 28 28 22 28 SHEAR DIR 263 262 272 271 267 261 262 258 255 274 284 284 338 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 27.0 27.6 28.0 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 119 119 120 121 121 122 124 130 135 136 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 113 113 113 114 113 113 114 116 118 118 115 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.8 -56.7 -57.2 -57.3 -57.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 53 53 48 51 48 50 46 50 44 45 50 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -6 -8 2 -1 -12 -28 -29 -45 -19 -23 -36 -37 200 MB DIV -14 1 11 22 -8 -9 -14 -21 -12 7 -16 -6 -18 LAND (KM) 1311 1420 1529 1644 1760 1975 2181 2201 2213 2256 2299 2296 2321 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.1 18.2 19.1 20.4 21.9 23.2 24.1 25.1 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 29.7 30.7 31.7 32.8 33.8 35.7 37.8 39.8 41.7 43.2 44.2 44.7 44.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 8 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 4 5 7 8 9 14 20 22 25 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -19. -22. -23. -23. -23. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL142007 MELISSA 09/30/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)