* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* MELISSA AL142007 09/30/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 36 36 34 32 30 30 31 33 33
V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 36 36 34 32 30 30 31 33 33
V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 34 33 30 28 26 25 25 25
SHEAR (KTS) 18 21 20 20 22 28 31 35 30 34 26 29 34
SHEAR DIR 275 271 268 267 261 253 256 248 256 275 292 326 344
SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.4 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 119 118 119 119 120 122 121 123 129 136 137 136 132
ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 113 113 113 114 113 113 117 121 120 118 113
200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.7 -56.3 -56.6 -56.8 -57.3 -57.8
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 50 46 49 48 51 51 53 45 45 50 48 41 36
GFS VTEX (KT) 2 3 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 4 -4 -13 -27 -34 -35 -29 -18 -27 -25 -47
200 MB DIV 0 1 2 -6 -1 0 0 -11 -5 29 -46 -26 -37
LAND (KM) 1443 1553 1663 1781 1899 2110 2212 2185 2218 2284 2250 2206 2188
LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.5 18.0 19.0 20.2 21.4 22.7 24.0 25.2 26.4 27.7
LONG(DEG W) 30.9 31.9 32.9 34.0 35.0 37.1 39.4 41.4 43.0 44.3 45.2 46.1 46.6
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 9 8 7 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 2 3 3 5 6 8 9 13 20 22 26 22 16
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 18.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -13. -17. -21. -23. -23. -25.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL142007 MELISSA 09/30/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%)