* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * JULIETTE EP142007 09/30/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 35 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 35 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 34 33 31 28 25 22 20 17 15 SHEAR (KTS) 16 12 13 17 18 21 26 18 21 23 25 20 24 SHEAR DIR 98 103 113 113 129 124 153 138 139 141 160 185 207 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.7 26.9 26.0 25.6 25.3 25.1 24.6 24.3 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 147 144 140 131 121 115 112 111 106 103 96 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 70 68 70 70 66 58 49 41 36 35 31 30 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 7 5 3 3 2 3 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 67 47 44 41 36 2 -1 -17 -25 -26 -10 -1 0 200 MB DIV 74 59 49 32 14 4 2 -11 -18 0 6 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 681 612 558 530 513 465 481 510 530 580 648 685 707 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 18.1 19.0 19.8 20.6 21.5 22.1 22.3 22.4 22.3 22.4 22.5 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 112.4 112.9 113.4 113.9 114.4 115.1 116.0 116.5 116.8 117.3 118.1 118.7 119.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 9 8 5 4 2 2 3 3 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -14. -15. -14. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -13. -19. -26. -30. -34. -34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -10. -16. -22. -28. -31. -35. -35. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP142007 JULIETTE 09/30/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%)