* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * MELISSA AL142007 09/30/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 24 24 22 22 22 21 23 27 27 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 24 24 22 22 22 21 23 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 24 23 21 20 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 19 21 22 21 27 31 30 30 33 41 33 29 35 SHEAR DIR 262 266 260 253 251 250 255 246 250 247 257 275 279 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.7 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 120 121 122 123 121 124 130 136 138 133 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 114 114 115 115 112 112 117 122 122 116 109 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -55.9 -56.4 -57.1 -57.5 -57.7 -57.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 49 51 50 51 53 51 52 53 53 58 55 52 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -5 -10 -16 -38 -40 -38 -38 -41 -39 -18 -24 200 MB DIV -1 -6 -19 -9 3 -8 -3 7 34 14 9 26 0 LAND (KM) 1558 1674 1790 1902 2014 2205 2167 2173 2222 2323 2299 2213 2025 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.0 19.1 20.4 21.6 22.8 24.3 26.1 27.7 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 32.0 33.1 34.1 35.1 36.1 38.1 40.3 41.9 43.1 44.1 45.0 45.6 45.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 9 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 7 8 8 10 14 20 22 22 15 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -7. -12. -16. -22. -25. -26. -28. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -2. 1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -7. -3. -3. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL142007 MELISSA 09/30/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)