* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * JULIETTE EP142007 09/30/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 40 35 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 40 35 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 42 43 42 40 37 34 31 28 26 23 21 SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 16 17 14 21 9 14 20 26 21 20 13 SHEAR DIR 101 110 117 139 149 146 159 118 121 129 156 170 203 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.2 26.1 25.6 25.5 26.0 25.9 26.0 25.3 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 145 142 135 122 115 114 120 118 120 113 107 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 5 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 68 70 72 70 65 54 50 43 41 38 37 34 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 6 4 3 2 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 40 35 29 12 0 -5 -15 -33 -33 -26 -19 1 200 MB DIV 55 47 41 37 19 14 0 -5 -11 23 -10 -3 -11 LAND (KM) 602 538 492 468 405 345 399 384 346 293 239 225 162 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 19.1 20.0 20.9 21.7 22.8 23.0 23.1 22.9 23.2 23.4 23.9 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.2 113.6 114.0 114.4 114.9 115.7 115.6 115.0 114.6 114.1 114.3 113.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 4 2 2 2 2 2 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -13. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -6. -11. -18. -23. -29. -31. -31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -11. -16. -22. -26. -32. -34. -33. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP142007 JULIETTE 09/30/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%)