* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * MELISSA AL142007 09/30/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 21 21 21 24 25 27 32 35 35 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 21 21 21 24 25 27 32 35 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 20 19 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 21 22 20 22 23 27 28 21 28 23 29 45 32 SHEAR DIR 283 275 263 259 252 267 268 284 271 280 278 291 286 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.4 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 123 124 124 122 123 129 136 138 135 128 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 116 118 118 115 114 118 122 122 117 110 105 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -55.3 -55.7 -56.1 -56.6 -57.0 -57.6 -56.8 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 47 50 49 51 51 52 52 55 60 51 44 42 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 13 5 -3 -13 -30 -57 -65 -44 -45 -9 4 15 200 MB DIV -7 -25 -15 -7 -8 -9 -11 12 38 3 27 -11 -22 LAND (KM) 1709 1823 1939 2065 2136 2080 2118 2198 2294 2256 2245 2066 1897 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.5 18.0 19.2 20.8 22.5 24.1 25.7 27.3 28.9 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 33.4 34.5 35.5 36.7 37.8 40.1 41.6 43.0 44.3 45.3 46.0 46.3 46.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 6 9 10 9 13 20 22 24 18 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. -21. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -7. -5. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. 0. 3. 8. 12. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. 0. 2. 7. 10. 10. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL142007 MELISSA 09/30/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)