* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * JULIETTE EP142007 09/30/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 56 56 54 46 36 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 56 54 46 36 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 58 59 58 52 45 38 33 29 26 24 22 SHEAR (KTS) 12 16 18 19 21 22 18 17 14 16 10 18 17 SHEAR DIR 109 119 132 148 147 161 147 155 148 165 189 207 223 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.5 26.9 26.1 25.0 24.8 24.8 24.9 24.8 24.6 23.9 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 139 132 123 110 106 105 106 106 105 99 92 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 69 71 67 61 55 49 42 38 33 28 24 21 20 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 9 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 46 38 11 10 15 7 -12 -6 -11 -2 1 14 200 MB DIV 47 37 31 23 19 12 0 -12 -10 -9 -24 -22 -9 LAND (KM) 562 525 478 426 391 383 394 394 388 371 365 366 275 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 20.1 21.0 21.8 22.6 23.5 23.7 23.7 23.6 23.8 24.0 24.5 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.1 114.5 114.9 115.3 115.8 116.0 116.0 115.9 115.8 115.8 116.4 116.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 7 3 1 0 0 1 2 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -14. -13. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 5. -3. -12. -22. -30. -36. -40. -44. -47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 6. 6. 4. -4. -14. -24. -32. -38. -41. -45. -47. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP142007 JULIETTE 09/30/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13%)