* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * MELISSA AL142007 10/01/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 33 33 35 37 37 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 33 33 35 37 37 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 23 23 23 25 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 20 21 21 21 25 29 28 30 31 20 25 41 N/A SHEAR DIR 261 259 259 255 259 262 250 254 247 284 338 315 N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 27.3 28.0 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 125 124 124 123 129 137 141 137 133 129 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 118 120 119 118 116 120 125 126 121 116 110 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.5 -55.9 -56.2 -56.5 -56.7 -57.5 -57.3 -57.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 49 49 48 51 51 57 53 44 38 37 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 14 6 -6 -14 -27 -35 -25 -19 -44 -42 -51 N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -16 -6 -5 -8 -2 7 43 -9 -29 -34 -12 N/A LAND (KM) 1858 1983 2108 2059 2017 1990 2031 2089 2047 1995 2008 2019 N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.6 18.1 19.5 21.2 22.7 24.3 25.8 27.3 28.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.8 36.0 37.1 38.4 39.6 41.8 43.8 45.7 47.0 48.1 48.7 49.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 12 13 12 11 10 8 8 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 8 10 10 11 22 30 30 29 22 12 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -13. -15. -16. -19. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL142007 MELISSA 10/01/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%)