* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* JULIETTE EP142007 10/01/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 44 42 34 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 44 42 34 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 40 35 30 26 23 21 19 17 15
SHEAR (KTS) 16 19 18 23 28 18 14 6 13 12 19 23 27
SHEAR DIR 128 145 154 149 149 167 169 159 167 189 199 233 247
SST (C) 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.2 25.7 24.7 24.4 24.1 24.1 23.9 23.7 23.1 22.5
POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 131 124 118 107 102 98 99 97 96 90 84
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -55.2 -55.7
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2
700-500 MB RH 70 67 62 57 53 46 38 33 28 27 23 20 18
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 7 6 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 53 42 17 15 16 10 0 -17 -15 -10 -6 23 25
200 MB DIV 28 18 17 22 28 5 1 -13 -2 -17 -17 -6 -31
LAND (KM) 572 522 469 447 434 426 432 425 425 399 373 359 273
LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.8 21.6 22.2 22.7 23.6 23.9 24.1 24.1 24.4 24.7 25.3 26.2
LONG(DEG W) 114.5 114.9 115.3 115.6 115.9 116.3 116.6 116.8 116.8 116.8 116.8 117.3 117.1
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 5 4 1 1 1 1 2 4 4
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -11. -13. -13. -12. -13. -12. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -7. -15. -22. -30. -36. -41. -46. -49. -51.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. -1. -3. -11. -19. -27. -34. -40. -45. -48. -50.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP142007 JULIETTE 10/01/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%)