* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * MELISSA AL142007 10/01/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 29 30 32 33 36 37 38 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 29 30 32 33 36 37 38 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 22 22 23 23 SHEAR (KTS) 22 20 21 23 27 28 25 25 24 22 28 36 36 SHEAR DIR 247 250 249 251 256 259 260 262 257 248 235 223 232 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.4 25.7 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 124 123 123 121 121 124 127 126 121 115 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 118 117 115 115 111 110 112 116 117 115 108 102 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.4 -55.5 -55.8 -56.1 -56.1 -56.7 -56.8 -57.3 -57.6 -57.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 7 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 47 47 50 47 51 54 58 57 56 47 40 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 6 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 11 0 -8 -29 -37 -46 -46 -49 -56 -69 -58 200 MB DIV -18 -8 -4 -6 -1 17 11 48 5 41 20 24 -2 LAND (KM) 2008 2077 2027 1986 1951 1905 1909 1999 2201 2393 2048 1640 1309 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.6 19.5 20.7 22.2 23.8 25.3 26.9 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 36.2 37.3 38.3 39.3 40.2 41.9 43.1 43.5 42.4 40.2 36.7 32.2 27.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 8 6 7 11 15 20 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 9 10 10 10 14 18 16 11 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 781 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 11. 12. 13. 11. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL142007 MELISSA 10/01/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%)