* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * JULIETTE EP142007 10/01/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 39 35 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 39 35 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 41 38 36 31 27 24 21 19 17 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 17 15 17 21 21 17 14 13 19 20 22 22 28 SHEAR DIR 134 140 154 153 164 157 180 161 182 224 228 240 251 SST (C) 27.6 27.1 26.5 26.0 25.5 24.6 24.5 24.3 24.1 23.7 23.4 22.8 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 134 127 121 116 105 102 101 99 95 93 88 77 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.6 -55.7 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 66 60 56 51 48 40 36 33 25 21 18 14 12 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 22 21 20 16 18 -8 -10 -21 -4 9 46 49 200 MB DIV 20 10 14 12 16 -2 -3 17 -3 -28 -22 -28 -24 LAND (KM) 522 469 428 407 393 377 384 370 358 321 285 276 172 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.4 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.4 24.8 25.2 25.9 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.0 115.3 115.5 115.7 115.9 116.0 116.0 116.1 116.1 116.1 116.8 116.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 5 3 0 1 1 2 3 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -11. -19. -28. -35. -41. -47. -52. -54. -55. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -10. -19. -27. -35. -42. -47. -52. -54. -55. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP142007 JULIETTE 10/01/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 2.2 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)