* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* JULIETTE EP142007 10/01/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 34 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 34 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 42 39 36 30 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 20 20 22 21 17 15 10 14 19 26 25 25 35
SHEAR DIR 145 157 159 169 173 180 202 176 210 215 236 247 270
SST (C) 25.9 25.5 25.0 24.5 24.0 23.4 23.4 23.2 23.0 22.8 22.4 21.9 21.1
POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 111 106 100 92 91 89 88 86 83 78 70
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -55.2 -55.8 -56.1
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 2 2 1
700-500 MB RH 59 58 52 50 46 38 37 30 25 20 16 13 11
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 6 6 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 33 28 27 22 16 18 -14 -18 -24 -9 22 45 45
200 MB DIV 21 13 16 17 9 1 4 8 -14 -13 -17 -35 -10
LAND (KM) 486 450 423 411 407 387 376 358 351 324 296 296 208
LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.1 23.6 24.2 24.2 24.4 24.6 24.9 25.4 26.2 27.2
LONG(DEG W) 115.3 115.5 115.7 115.9 116.1 116.3 116.1 116.1 116.3 116.3 116.5 117.4 117.0
STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 4 1 1 1 2 2 4 5 5
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. -22. -25.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -14. -19.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -10. -11. -10. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -12. -22. -32. -40. -47. -53. -59. -62. -65.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -2. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -11. -15. -26. -37. -45. -52. -56. -61. -63. -66.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP142007 JULIETTE 10/01/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 1.6 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 1.9 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)