* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 10/01/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 44 50 54 54 53 47 43 40 33 V (KT) LAND 30 34 33 31 34 40 43 43 32 28 27 27 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 29 32 34 37 40 31 28 27 27 29 SHEAR (KTS) 30 34 29 19 17 17 13 19 13 20 16 37 81 SHEAR DIR 217 206 219 219 230 268 268 290 283 284 244 222 204 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.4 25.4 22.7 20.3 17.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 152 154 149 142 137 128 109 92 82 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 136 137 138 132 123 116 109 95 82 75 71 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -54.4 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 3 6 3 7 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 57 56 59 52 50 48 50 50 46 45 53 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 10 11 11 11 9 8 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 118 114 99 99 77 19 13 -25 -49 -102 -32 47 85 200 MB DIV 38 30 15 -4 -18 -5 13 -2 -13 10 39 53 71 LAND (KM) 192 89 -10 -47 9 172 116 11 -90 -269 -555 -902 -999 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.6 25.9 26.5 27.0 28.2 29.4 30.3 31.2 32.6 34.8 37.9 41.7 LONG(DEG W) 78.4 79.4 80.3 81.5 82.6 84.9 87.0 88.5 89.9 91.3 93.1 94.0 93.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 12 12 11 10 8 8 11 15 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 44 63 64 9999 15 20 26 16 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 20. 24. 24. 24. 18. 14. 12. 6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 14. 20. 24. 24. 23. 17. 13. 10. 3. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/01/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%)